Seafood Species Vulnerable to Climate Change

Climate change touches many aspects of our lives, including the food on our plates. Many of our foods are vulnerable as climate impacts worsen, from staple crops like maize to much-loved treats like coffee and chocolate. 

Wild-caught seafood from our ocean is no exception. Marine fish and invertebrates are influenced by the conditions in their environment. Climate change is making the ocean warmer, more acidic and lower in oxygen. It’s also causing marine heatwaves, storms, sea ice loss and sea level rise. These changes disrupt where fish are found, what they eat, where they can survive and how productive their populations are, and they affect fisheries and coastal communities around the United States. 

Below we share how five fish that we love to eat are affected by a changing climate. While some fish populations are less affected or more able to adapt, other fish rely on us to make good choices. We need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to head off the most severe impacts of climate change, but we also need to take additional steps to help fisheries adapt.  Fortunately, there are actions that the people who manage fisheries can take now to support resilient fish stocks and prepare for climate change. The recent disappearance of more than a billion crabs in the Bering Sea and closure of the fishing season—where climate change is likely to be the major culprit—speaks to the urgent need for climate adaptation in fisheries. 

October is National Seafood Month, and as we end this month celebrating the bounty of United States seafood, we should look ahead and ask, “How can we make sure we have sustainable seafood in the next generation?” 

Shrimp

There are several species of shrimp caught in United States waters, from the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of Maine and along the West Coast. Northern shrimp, found in the northeast, are highly vulnerable to climate change, according to a climate vulnerability assessment done by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). That assessment found that these shrimp were particularly sensitive to warming water temperatures and ocean acidification. In 2012, the collapse of the Atlantic population of northern shrimp was tied to a marine heat wave. Warm water temperatures were hard on the shrimp, but the warmer waters also brought a predator—longfin squid—into the areas where shrimp were located, which caused higher shrimp mortality. 

In the Gulf of Mexico, white, brown and pink shrimp fisheries supply much of the shrimp that makes it way to grocery stores, fish markets and restaurants. By the end of the century, scientists have projected that pink shrimp could lose nearly 70% of their habitat in the Gulf as waters warm. But shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico are already being affected by massive climate-driven injections of freshwater when the Mississippi River floods. The freshwater influx forces some shrimp to move farther offshore to find saltier waters, can impact critical nursery habitat due to land loss and can also spur algal blooms that impact shrimp populations. Flooding of the Mississippi River in 2019 led to a catastrophic regional fishery disaster in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana that included shrimp fisheries. 

It isn’t just the shrimp that face impacts from climate change. Fishing communities and the infrastructure they need for fishing—from boats to ramps and marinas—are also vulnerable from storms and sea level rise.

Tuna

There are many tuna species that we eat, and as highly migratory fish, their management can be complicated. But if you’ve got a can of tuna sitting in your pantry, there’s a good chance it’s albacore (chunk white) tuna.

In the United States, there are three stocks of albacore: the North Pacific and South Pacific albacore stocks and a North Atlantic stock. The majority of albacore caught in the United States is North Pacific albacore tuna. These albacore spawn in warmer waters in the North Pacific and undergo an impressive migration that is shaped by ocean conditions each year. Likewise, the catch of albacore by fishermen off the West Coast catch is related to water temperatures. Since they are very mobile and eat a wide range of prey, North Pacific albacore may be more resilient to climate changes overall because they can move to avoid impacts and find food. Warming ocean temperatures are likely to cause North Pacific albacore to shift northward and could also change how long they spend in coastal waters off the West Coast. These changes have already started to have effects on the fishery and other fishing-related businesses, as the timing of migrations and locations of fish have shifted, which could also create conflicts as fish move across international boundaries.

Outside the United States, changes in the distribution of tuna could have serious impacts on many Pacific Island nations, where tuna fisheries form an important part of the economy and are critical to food security. 

Flounder

There are many different species of fish that we eat and call flounder, and generally flounders are flatfish that live on the seafloor. Along the Eastern Seaboard, summer flounder and winter flounder are two of the most popular flounders. Not surprisingly, summer flounder migrate into coastal bays in the summer months, while winter flounder can be found in shallow coastal waters in winter and spring. Scientists conducted a climate vulnerability assessment and found that summer flounder were moderately vulnerable to climate change. On the other hand, winter flounder had a very high vulnerability because their biology makes them sensitive to changes and they are expected to have high exposure to climate-driven environmental changes.

Both flounders have shifted their populations northward in the last few decades, and those shifts have been linked to warming. From the 1970s until now, the center of the summer flounder population has shifted roughly 70 miles northward and winter flounder about 20 miles. By the end of the century, the summer flounder population is predicted to shift another 85 miles northward, while winter flounder is predicted to shift almost 250 miles given a high emissions future. These shifts are already raising challenging questions about how the catch should be allocated among states and fleets, and who should oversee their management.

Cod

Technically “cod” refers to the three species of fish in the genus Gadus, belonging in the family Gadidae. Cod live in colder ocean waters, which can make them vulnerable as waters warm. 

One species of cod, Pacific cod, can be found from the Bering Sea off Alaska to Southern California. In Alaska, Alaska Native people have stewarded and harvested Pacific cod since time immemorial, and Pacific cod continues to be a key cultural and food security resource today. Pacific cod also support economically important fisheries. Unfortunately, Pacific cod are sensitive to the temperature of their environment, and climate change is having serious impacts on these fish in the Gulf of Alaska. From 2014-2016, a large “blob” of warm water in the region disrupted the ecosystem—Pacific cod abundance declined by a whopping 70%, and the directed fishery for cod in the Gulf of Alaska closed in 2020. Warmer waters can limit the success of cod eggs hatching, slow the growth of cod as they mature and reduce the amount of food available. Marine heatwaves like the “blob” are expected to become more intense and more frequent with climate change, which is concerning because they can cause widespread disruptions to marine ecosystems. 

Salmon

Pacific salmon spawn in rivers, sometimes hundreds of miles upstream, and the young salmon make the journey back downstream to the ocean where they spend their lives before returning to their natal river to spawn. Along this journey, many Pacific salmon face a host of challenges to their survival, including dams, in-river and coastal habitat impacts, bycatch and pollution. On top of all this, the effects of climate change on the ocean, streams and on land can all impact the success of salmon populations. This matters because salmon play important roles in marine and freshwater ecosystems and contribute to the health of forests. Indigenous people throughout Alaska and the Pacific Northwest are deeply connected to the salmon they have stewarded since time immemorial, and salmon are central to many Indigenous cultures and food security throughout the region. Salmon support Tribal, subsistence, commercial and recreational fisheries; they are an important food source for many animals, including marine mammals; and they act as a source of nutrients to river and inland ecosystems when they travel upstream to spawn.  

Many salmon populations are already facing multiple stressors leading to declines in population, and climate change is exacerbating these problems. Warming waters in both the ocean and in-river are having dramatic impacts on salmon populations. In Alaska, for example, Chinook and chum salmon on the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers have declined to the point that no subsistence or commercial fishing has been allowed for several years, creating a crisis of culture and food security. On the West Coast, scientists at NOAA Fisheries did an assessment of how 33 threatened salmon populations would be vulnerable to climate change along the West Coast. That assessment found that Chinook, coho and sockeye salmon populations were the most vulnerable, while others, like pink and chum salmon, were less vulnerable to climate change. 

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Don’t Mess With Damselfish

If you’ve snorkeled on a reef in the tropics, odds are you’ve seen damselfish. These small but colorful fish are staples in many aquatic habitats, but how much do you really know about damselfish? Dive in as we explore five fast facts about damselfish.

There are many different types of damselfish. 

There are about 250 species of damselfish in the family Pomacentridae, a group which also includes clownfish. They come in a range of colors and patterns, from the aptly named four striped damselfish to the vibrant blue damselfish. Across all species, there are a few things they have in common: Their bodies are deeper than they are wide, and they have forked tails. Plus, they don’t get too big—the largest damselfish, the Garibaldi, grows only to about a foot long. 

Damselfish are found in a wide range of habitats. 

Most damselfish are found in marine, or saltwater, habitats in the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific oceans. There are a few others found in brackish or freshwater habitats, like the (again, aptly named) freshwater damselfish. Damselfish are commonly found in warm, tropical regions, but they can also be seen in subtropical zones. Also, many species are popular as aquarium fish, so you might see one in a friend’s home aquarium. 

They pack a punch.

Damselfish are small, but they’re surprisingly mighty! Some damselfish species are extremely territorial, meaning they will fiercely defend their homes from threats, including other damselfish. They will quickly and aggressively swim towards intruders to scare them away from their territory. 

Sometimes they’re unwanted. 

A few species of damselfish are considered invasive, meaning they’re in areas where they don’t naturally live and are causing harm to the local environment. One invasive species is the regal damselfish which originated in the Indo-Pacific Ocean and is now found in the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic oceans. Scientists aren’t exactly sure how they got to their new ranges, but it could have happened with people dumping their aquariums or from regal damselfish hitching a ride on international oil rigs. 

They’re tiny gardeners. 

Some species of damselfish are “algae farmers,” meaning they actually nibble away at the habitat to cultivate algae growth. They bite unwanted algae to remove it, allowing other, more desirable algae species to grow. This is part of a balanced coral reef ecosystem, but there can also be too much of a good thing: Some damselfish can eat live coral tissue in their quest to create an algae garden. Too many damselfish can stress out an already stressed reef. 

Can’t get enough fun fish facts? Check out our Wildlife Fact Sheets and visit our Action Center to help protect all animals that live in the ocean.  

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Are Fisheries Ready for Climate Change?

Take Action for Climate-Ready Fisheries

The ocean has buffered our planet from the impacts of climate change, absorbing much of the carbon dioxide we’ve emitted and a substantial amount of the heat from our warming atmosphere. That comes at a cost. The ocean is getting higher and hotter; it holds less oxygen; and it’s becoming more acidic. In short, the ocean is becoming less familiar and its patterns less recognizable.

Marine species have been swimming in these changing waters for years now, and we are starting to understand what that means for them. Fish populations are shifting their ranges in response to changing temperatures and food availability, and scientists predict that the potential global catch could decrease by as much as 16-25% by the end of the century.^[1] Habitats, like kelp forests and coral reefs, are diminishing. Marine mammals and seabirds are struggling to find sufficient prey during extreme events like marine heatwaves.^[2]

The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems come at a cost to people, businesses and cultures. Coastal communities which engage in fishing are deeply dependent on a familiar ocean to sustain their way of life. We can already see the impacts of change, as many fish populations that have been sustainably managed for years have had frightening declines. In Alaska, Tribes and Alaskan Natives who have fished sustainably for millennia can now no longer fish their traditional salmon runs as too few fish return to streams and rivers. Multiple crab species are vanishing in the North Pacific, shutting down major commercial fisheries. In New England, there are questions about whether the water is now too warm to allow fish populations to recover from historic overfishing. Warm “blobs” of water, which are large and long-lasting marine heatwaves, haunt the West Coast of the United States and have resulted in decreased fishing opportunities and harmful algal blooms. Hurricanes fueled by climate change and “super storms” have devastated fishing communities far and wide, from northwest Alaska to the Gulf of Mexico.

We know these changes are happening, and we know they will get worse. Large-scale climate models that predict how our planet will respond to emissions show steady increases in global temperatures and impacts until at least 2050, which is the earliest that emissions-reductions efforts that we take right now will change the course of our planet’s warming.^[3] That’s because there’s so much “thermal inertia” in the climate system—heat absorbed long ago is continuing to warm our planet today. While the U.S. has taken bold climate action recently with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, our climate future is already set for the next 30 years. The climate will get warmer before it stabilizes.

That’s why the recent findings of a report about U.S. fishery management by the Government Accountability Office are so shocking. The report found that only a quarter of the 46 management plans that determine sustainable levels of fishing for over 450 critically important marine fish stocks in the U.S. consider climate change at all. It concluded that NOAA Fisheries, the government agency responsible for ensuring that our ocean fisheries are managed for the long-term good of the public, should identify and prioritize opportunities for managers to enhance the climate resilience of federal fisheries.

Fundamentally, we need to apply new approaches to change the way we manage fisheries in the U.S. We’ve built a strong foundation, as decades of evidence-based management approaches have helped reduce overfishing, rebuild stocks and restore coastal communities. But if we don’t find ways to adapt, climate change will rob us of a sustainable fishing future. NOAA Fisheries has worked for years to build a scientific understanding of how[AM1]  climate change is altering our fisheries, investing in efforts to understand marine ecosystems, monitor indicators of change and build advanced predictive models to look into the future. More must be done there, but the Government Accounting Office report shows that the science and information already available is not making it into management decisions. It does us no good to understand what will happen if we fail to take steps to respond to it.

We are running out of time, but the good news is that we have many of the pieces we need to make a difference. Now, we need bold leadership from NOAA Fisheries to reimagine our approaches for managing fishing. Climate-ready fishery management will prioritize sustainability, resilience and equity in order to preserve the ocean’s long-term ability to provide food and support businesses, recreation and culture. We know the ocean will keep changing. If we fail to adapt, sustainable fisheries and the benefits they bring will be only a thing of the past.

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^[1] Cheung, W. W. L., Bruggeman, J., and Butenschön, M. (2018). “Projected changes in global and national potential marine fisheries catch under climate change scenarios in the twenty-first century,” in Impacts of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture: Synthesis of Current Knowledge, Adaptation and Mitigation Options, eds M. Barange, T. Bahri, M. C. M. Beveridge, K. Cochrane, S. Funge-Smith, and F. Poulain, (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), 63-85.

^[2] Cooley, S., D. Schoeman, L. Bopp, P. Boyd, S. Donner, D.Y. Ghebrehiwet, S.-I. Ito, W. Kiessling, P. Martinetto, E. Ojea, M.-F. Racault, B. Rost, and M. Skern-Mauritzen, 2022: Oceans and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 379–550, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.005.

^[3] IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001.

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How Are Fishery Managers Using Climate Data?

This blog was written by Michele Conrad, advisor to Ocean Conservancy on achieving priority fish conservation and ecosystem goals on the West Coast. As a former state ocean policy manager, Michele represented the State of Washington on the Pacific Fishery Management Council for 15 years before starting her own consultancy. She is passionate about helping fisheries manage their way through climate change and furthering ocean conservation efforts.

Ever see something unusual or out of context and it takes a moment to register what exactly you’re seeing? 

When our eyes see an image, our brain interprets it by searching an internal database of visual references—a process that usually happens within a fraction of a second. However, new research shows that when it’s harder to recognize an object, our perception of that object is shaped by what we know and our personal experience. This insight into how knowledge and experience affect perception could not be truer when it comes to fishery management, including how we estimate the status of fish populations.

For decades, scientists have estimated how many fish are in the ocean and fishery managers have used those estimates to determine how many fish can be sustainably caught. NOAA Fisheries’ surveys gather biological and environmental data, including the climate, ecosystem and fish data that can be used to form “images” for fishery management—they are our eyes in the ocean. These surveys form a strong scientific foundation for fishery management decisions.

Scientists use the data to create and interpret the “images,” which are like puzzles, and as they try to find the pieces that fit, the images often remain blurry. Stakeholders—fishermen, processors, anglers and conservationists—and fishery managers all have different perceptions of those images based on their individual knowledge and personal experiences.

Even in the best conditions, estimating the number of fish in the ocean is like counting birds in the forest … except we can’t readily see or hear the fish. Not only is that “forest” more than 60 million square miles in size, if we’re talking about the Pacific Ocean, but ocean ecosystems are also complicated and dynamic, and environmental factors are intertwined and influence each other. To add to the complexity, climate change is causing oceanographic changes to occur more rapidly, more frequently and to greater extremes. 

In short, climate information can be an important part of the larger picture of how fish populations are doing.

But are fishery managers using that information?

In at least one region, the answer is “yes.” The Pacific Fishery Management Council’s (PFMC) Ecosystem and Climate Information Initiative (aka Initiative 2.1 described here), which they adopted in September 2022, is a collaboration among scientists, fishery managers and stakeholders to essentially create and interpret the “image” of how fish are doing along the West Coast. It is a proactive step to preparing Pacific fisheries for climate disruptions.

Through the initiative, scientists will study how different climate and ecosystem factors could impact specific fish stocks. By identifying those relationships and understanding how climate change has already affected fisheries in other regions, managers will be better prepared for shifting environmental conditions. Doing this will tell us there can be more fishing when conditions are favorable and provide early warning systems to tell us when things are looking bad so we can pull back. Using climate information also means we better understand fishing’s relationship with vulnerable habitats and ocean food webs, as well as changing pressures that fishing communities are facing.  In other words, by taking these steps, the Pacific Council will improve their perception of the status of fish stocks in the ocean, which will lead to better, climate-informed fishery management decisions that can help avert a fishery disaster.

Some have worried that including climate information will make the tricky task of estimating fish in the ocean even more challenging (i.e., that it will make a blurry image even worse). And trying to enhance the image by expanding research surveys is difficult and expensive. But as the new study on the human visual pathway concluded, the key to improving our understanding (our perception) is to expand what we know and learn from our experiences.

So, instead of ignoring climate information or just focusing on collecting more data, the PFMC will be using the environmental data NOAA already gathers in combination with the information from our collective experiences (i.e., the fisheries we know have been affected by climate change) to improve our understanding of fish populations. This information can also help us manage the populations sustainably even as ocean conditions shift due to climate change. It’s definitely a step in the right direction towards more resilient fisheries.

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